Global aluminium consumption will increase at 3% CAGR over next 15 years, demand should grow by more than 9 Mt between 2015 and 2020.
The primary metal production/consumption balance 2013-2016 is as shown in the table, source EA.
Global primary aluminium supply will be concentrated in 3 integrated areas, Russia, Middle East and Australia.China and India will be balanced markets with mutual semis export/import, the North American, European and Asian market deficit will grow.
The EU is one of the main structural net importer of primary aluminium, theEuropean dependence on primary metal imports will reach this year an estimated 3.5 Mt, in front of a 8.2 Mt consumption, source Wood Mackenzie. The production of primary metal in the EU between 2002 and 2015 decreased significantly from 3.1Mt to just 2Mt, with 38% less smelters in operation today, moreover of the 16 smelters still working, many are at risk or curtailed.